You could check the current page in Publishing event and store PeerOrder and content reference for the current page. Then check in published event if that has changed... I think I do that for something similar and store it in httpcontext.Items collection to easily compare changes. 

Move event will only be triggered if you move it in the page tree (change parent...). It will however not trigger for the children of the page being moved btw so you need to deal with that as well :)

Alternatively, load the previously published version in published event and compare PeerOrder with the currently published page.

You're not moving the page, you're sorting pages. I guess.

What are you trying to achieve?

I would say it's still a move since the editor is drag and dropping a page to a new location. I was able to solve this with Daniels suggestion by storing how the page looked before the move and then comparing it to what it became after the move. It's not pretty code but it works.

I agree to disagree :)

You're not moving the page to a new location, hence the URL to the page doesn't change. Your're only updating the sort index, and maybe the parent's sorting rule.

Glad you could solve you're issue anyway.